Relative Risk VS Absolute Risk (and why you need to know the difference!)
If you’re pregnant and planning your birth, chances are you’ve heard some big, bold statements about risk. Maybe a care provider has said, “Your chance of stillbirth doubles after 41 weeks,” or “VBAC triples your risk of uterine rupture.”
Scary stuff, right?
But here’s the thing: how we talk about risk matters.
And often, what sounds terrifying in the moment is just a case of stats being spun in a way that feels more dramatic than it is. I like to call it… “medical marketing”… because the statement itself isn’t UNTRUE, but when we look at the absolute risk, we can see that in some cases, we’re talking about an increase of HALF A PERCENT!
As a modern Central Coast doula who’s supported many families through pregnancy and birth, I want you to have the real info — because that’s what leads to confident, informed decision-making.
So let’s break it down.
Relative Risk vs Absolute Risk: What's the Difference?
🧠 Absolute risk is the actual chance of something happening
eg: 0.5% of people who plan a VBAC experience a uterine rupture
eg 2: Your risk of stillbirth at 41 weeks is 2 in 1000
📈 Relative risk is how much more likely something is compared to something else.
eg: a VBAC triples your risk of a uterine rupture (compared to a repeat c-section)
eg 2: your chance of a stillbirth doubles at 41 weeks (at 41 weeks, your risk of a stillbirth is 2 in 1000, compared to 1 in 1000 at 40 weeks)
Relative risk often makes something sound a lot scarier than it is — and without the context of absolute risk, it can feel impossible to make calm, grounded choices.
Let’s look at those two examples above in more detail:
1. VBAC & Uterine Rupture
You might hear:
“VBAC triples your risk of uterine rupture!”
That’s relative risk. Technically true. But here’s the actual numbers:
Planned repeat caesarean: ~0.15% risk of uterine rupture
VBAC: ~0.5% risk
So yes — it’s 3x higher…
But in real terms, that’s 1 in 200 people (0.5%)
Still a small number. And with good support and the right environment, many people feel confident planning a VBAC and go on to have a successful one at that.
2. Induction at 41 Weeks due to risk of stillbirth
Another common one:
“You should consider induction because your risk of stillbirth doubles after 41 weeks.”
Sounds hectic. But again, what are we actually talking about?
At 40 weeks: ~1 in 1,000 (0.1%)
At 41 weeks: ~2 in 1,000 (0.2%)
Yes, it doubles.
But you’re still looking at less than a 0.2% chance.
Knowing the difference between these two types of risk changes how you feel — and how you choose. It’s then up to you to decide whether or not the risks of an induction outweigh the 2 in 1000 risk of stillbirth.
What This Has to Do with Informed Decision-Making
As your Central Coast doula, I’m not here to tell you what to choose. I’m here to make sure you have all the information — not just the scary headlines — so you can make decisions that align with your values, your body, and your baby.
Informed decision-making is about:
Understanding the real numbers
Asking better questions
And feeling empowered, not pressured
Want More of This?
If this kind of clarity speaks to you, you’ll love Birth Different — my self-paced online birth course made for people who want real education, not fear-based fluff.
Inside, we unpack birth physiology, mindset, pain, interventions, and so much more — all with that Modern Doula no-BS energy.
Because birth doesn’t have to be scary. You just need the right info.
💬 Got questions? DM me @themodern.doula or check out Birth Different and start prepping for a birth that actually feels like yours.